According to the latest report released by Macquarie Group, a bank providing financial, investment and money management services in Australia, Swiss watches will fall by 9% in 2016. Macquarie pointed out that the Group reviewed the Swatch Group’s profit warning in July this year and the year-on-year decline in Swiss watch exports in the first half of this year, and made an assessment and forecast of Swiss watch demand for the rest of the year.
The report reads as follows: ‘According to the Zurich Federal Institute of Technology’s business trend survey of Swiss watch manufacturers, we expect global demand for Swiss watches and Swiss watch exports to fall by 9% in 2016. We believe that 10% of global Swiss watch demand Switzerland itself will also be in line with overseas development trends. ‘
Looking ahead, Macquarie expects Swiss watch exports to achieve ‘mild growth’ over the next seven years, and compares slowed market growth with ‘the situation during the quartz crisis of the 1970s.’ Although Macquarie believes that the Swiss watch market will resume growth in 2017, the Group believes that the degree of recovery is difficult to compare with the credit crunch period of 2009-2010. The group report shows that the impact of smart watches on trends can be referenced to the effects of quartz watches on trends in the 1970s, albeit at a slower rate.
‘We believe that smart watches are becoming a true competitor to traditional watches. In fact, smart watch shipments exceeded Swiss watches in 2015. Due to the lack of demand from key customers (such as the Chinese market in 2010), ‘V’ The possibility of font recovery is not high. ‘